And the World Turns

Three weeks away from my blog, a mostly forced hiatus due to moving house, and the world has become a very different place now to the one I was looking at when I last posted.

Of course, that last post was about the French presidential election and those of us that follow the news will know that socialist Francois Hollande was elected by what Alex Ferguson might call 'a squeaky-bum margin'. Of course, that means that despite the left-wing victory, France remains a deeply-divided country, and the sheer weight of debt across Europe means that no leader will be able to instantly approve large swathes of public sector spending. However, it was cheering that since the majority approval of Hollande's plan for growth on the night of his victory in Tulle, David Cameron has started slipping the 'g' word into his speeches. Of course, there is a big difference between words and deeds, but who knows, maybe the notion that you need growth to boost tax revenues is finally getting through to our leader. Meanwhile, for Hollande, there will be no time to settle into his new role. His first job will be finding an economic plan that mollifies the puffy German premier, Andrea Merkel.

And frankly, who would be poor Andrea at the moment? It's not enough that Great Britain continue to cock a snook at Europe and that she has now lost her closest ally in trying to preserve the fragile finances of the Eurozone (and I think we can agree that 'Merllande' just doesn't sound as sexy as 'Merzoky'.) She now has to contend with Greece's fractured election process, which sees the vote spreadeagled over a variety of left and right wing parties, some pro-Europe and pro-austerity, and others against. With the chance of a coalition being formed that can take the country forward virtually non-existent, there will most likely be further elections in a few weeks time, and a further period of political instability and economic stagnation.

Across the pond, American president Barack Obama has come out in favour of gay marriage, a view apparently shared by our own David Cameron but one which he is afraid to run past his own rumbling backbenchers. Nick Clegg has sold yet another portion of his party's soul for a vague suggestion that there might be a chance to reform the House of Lords, but I hope he's not holding his breath waiting for the discussions to begin.

Finally, I would like to offer my solidarity to the 400,000 public sector workers from PCS and Unite who have gone on strike today in the UK protesting at the proposed changes to their pension schemes. When will our government learn? They cannot continue to pay bankers fat bonuses while in the same breath claiming that the pensions of low-paid workers are unaffordable. It is a stance that lacks credibility and hopelessly undermines their 'All in this together' tagline. And while our own health workers are out on strike protecting their agreed terms and conditions, worldwide that trend is echoed. The foreign office notes that multiple social conflicts are ongoing in socialist Bolivia, where public transport strikes and ongoing health worker strikes have paralysed the capital city, La Paz, and other urban areas across the country.

Hollande Offers Hope to Progressives

As the afternoon votes in the French Presidential election are counted, it seems that it will be extremely likely that Presidential incumbent Nicolas Sarzoky will face off against socialist contender Francois Hollande in the second round on May 6th.

In the French constitution, unless any contender has a clear 50% of the votes in the first round, a second round is required when the two main contenders are pitted against each other for the spoils.  With those contenders rumoured to be virtually level-pegging, the significant factor could be far-right contender Marine Le Pen's monstrous 20% share of the first round vote.

It is amazing to think that less than a century after France was humbled by the war machine of Nationalist Germany during WWII, one in five French people can be found voting for a nationalist French party linked to fascists and extremists.  Having said that, at least the French contenders cover the entire political spectrum, giving voters a far better range of choices than that offered to us here in the UK.

Far-left contender Jean-Luc Melenchon has already come out in support of Mr Hollande, who favours a 75% rate of tax for high earners as one of his major planned policies should he win on May 6th.  In order to avoid becoming the first single-term president since the early 1980s, Sarzoky will now have to convince Le Pen's far-right voters that he is the man to tackle major issues such as national debt and immigration.  In doing so, he must be careful that he does not alienate his central-right supporters by adopting a racist anti-Muslim stance.

As in England with it's narrow, incestuous three-party politics, it is the small number of those in the middle of the voting spectrum which may have the decisive say.  The final reckoning in the election may be decided by the 6 - 8% of people who voted for centrist candidate Francois Bayrou.  The future of politics in Europe could decide whether those small number of potential swing voters land on the left or the right side of the fence.

France has the fifth biggest economy in the world and is one of Europe's two remaining economic powerhouses.  The outcome of this election will be felt worldwide, not just within the Gallic borders.  It's most pertinent for the United Kingdom that while we have opted for a conservative stance that sees us heading into double-dip recession, favouring lower taxes for the rich and reduced opportunities for everyone else, France may provide us with a comparitive position that would allow us to learn from our mistakes.

Whether our position improves or not, Hollande is a key step closer to ending the toxic austerity program in the heart of Europe and perhaps offering hope of an alternative to progressives everywhere.

French Police Hunt Anti-Semitic Executioner

French police are linking an attack by a gunman on a Jewish school in Toulouse earlier in the week to previous attacks on military targets in the south of the country.

The attack left a 30 year old teacher and three children under the age of nine dead. CCTV images reportedly showed a lone gunman dressed in black stepping from a scooter, pursuing one of the children through the school before cornering her and shooting her in the head, execution-style, at point-blank range.

The most recent attack, coming so quickly after the murder of two soldiers of North African origin at a cashpoint in Montauban last week, have prompted one of the largest manhunts in French history. President Nicolas Sarzoky said of the killer that 'everything, absolutely everything, will be done to track him down.'

At the moment, it seems that the gunmen has the upper hand. His lethal hit-and-run tactics have now claimed seven victims, with a 17-year-old still in a critical condition in hospital. Authorities fear that it is only a matter of time until he kills again.

With the first round of the French Presidential election a little over four weeks away, the notion that the murders may be racially and politically motivated is a compelling one. With international focus very much on the recent political tensions between Israel, Iran and the US, it is not hard to imagine a hardline Islamist extremist pre-empting perceived aggression against the Islamic regime by targeting Jews and soldiers from a pro-US government.

It also adds another unwelcome strand to the election campaign itself. With Socialist candidate Francois Hollande having been very much in the ascendancy in the last few week, Nicolas Sarzoky has responded with a tough stance on immigration that he believes will secure him re-election. The idea of a foreign killer with a grudge against the state stalking the streets of Southern France might yet impact upon the consciousness of the French electorate.